POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: Looking ahead —WARREN’s 2020 positioning — BAKER’s BEZOS bid

01/02/2018 07:04 AM EDT

By Lauren Dezenski (ldezenski@politico.com; @LaurenDezenski) with Rebecca Morin (rmorin@politico.com; @RebeccaMorin_)

AND WE'RE BACK.

WELCOME TO 2018, MASSACHUSETTS. It's great to be back from vacation and back in your inbox. As Massachusetts plunges into the new year, these questions are top of mind in state politics:

How's Baker going to handle 2018? - Gov. Charlie Baker enters his reelection year still riding high atop the polls. He remains the most popular governor in the country, and enjoys nearly 30-point leads over any Democratic gubernatorial challengers according to most recent polling. Can Baker hold the line with restive conservatives in Massachusetts, keep a positive working relationship with Democrats, and maintain both his distance from - and connections to - national Republicans to lock down the votes he needs to win a second term?

How will Warren shape her future? - Sen. Elizabeth Warren is running two different races, depending who you ask. The first, her re-election to the US Senate, involves a taste of outside spending with a Mercer-backed PAC. Despite a field of three Republican challengers and the specter of endless outside cash, the senior senator is expected to coast to a second term this November. The second is the will-she, won't-she of a 2020 presidential run, where Warren has so far enjoyed top-tier contender status alongside the likes of Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. Warren has made a series of under-the-radar moves in the last year that could help her in 2020, my colleague Gabriel Debenedetti reports. How will her reelection bid play into those 2020 aspirations?

Will those marijuana dispensaries open on time - and will there be enough supply to meet the demand? - The key component of the 2016 marijuana legalization law called for recreational dispensaries to open in January 2018. That, of course, hasn't happened, as lawmakers pushed back the open date to July 2018, fearing too short a timeline to get the state's marijuana regulation structure up and running. In the meantime, states like Nevada had dispensaries whose supply couldn't meet the demand . Now, the Cannabis Control Commission crafted its own set of draft regulations for the nascent industry that is still federally unlawful - and set to be publicly vetted over the next few months.

What will happen with the Senate's ethics probe? - Acting State Senate President Harriette Chandler has promised stability and no deviation from the state Senate's mission, but as investigators dig into any misconduct by now former-Senate President Stan Rosenberg, findings will be laid at the feet of the Senate Ethics Committee, which will then determine how to proceed based on the results. Rosenberg, who has denied any wrongdoing as his partner faces allegations of sexual misconduct and a potential FBI investigation, has vowed to return to his post atop the Senate. The ethics committee has refused to offer a timeline for the investigation itself - and four state senators have openly expressed interest in the presidency. If the investigation stretches for months, could the uncertainty and rumor-mill impact the Senate's agenda, or allow one of the contenders for the presidency enough time to whip the votes needed to ascend to the top of the Senate?

Will there be more sexual harassment fallout? - Rampant rumors of potential departures and more bombshell stories in the pipeline ensure that the scrutiny into actions of powerful individuals in and around government will continue into the new year. Another question: How much of an impact it will have - and if, or any, other names will be named.

Will Massachusetts voters completely change the state's tax code through ballot question in November? - Massachusetts voters headed to the polls this November have the chance to restructure the state's tax code if they approve two different ballot questions this fall. The first would increase taxes by four percent to the state's annual income earners over $1 million - the so-called Millionaires Tax. The other would decrease the state's sales tax from 6.25 percent to 5 percent. There's still time for it to change, but so far polling shows support for both measures passing: an overhaul of the state's tax code into a progressive system, poised to alter the flow of money into the state's coffers.

How many more people will jump into the MA-3 race? - The state's only open congressional seat has drawn an ever-expanding pool of candidates, with the current Democratic field at a dozen. The race to fill Niki Tsongas' House seat in Massachusetts' Third District, centered in Lowell, has attracted a transgender woman, former US ambassador to Denmark, a hotel magnate, and more. Last week, another Democrat jumped into the field currently dominated by women and minorities: Keith St. John of Marlboro.

Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for the Playbook? Get in touch: ldezenski@politico.com.

TODAY - Gov. Charlie Baker attends the inaugurations two Democratic mayors: Newburyport's Donna Holaday and Everett'sCarlo DeMaria - Secretary of State Bill Galvin holds a public hearing about the scheduled date for the state's primary and the backup primary day. Both dates this year fall on Jewish holidays - Now-former state Sen. Tom McGee is sworn in as mayor of Lynn. Attorney General Maura Healey and Auditor Suzanne Bump plan to attend.

DATELINE BEACON HILL -

- "Chandler has 2018 agenda for Senate that moves beyond scandal," by Katie Lannan, State House News Service: "Looking ahead to 2018, Chandler said senators want to move forward and hope to see 'a lot of legislation starting to move, very quickly we hope, in January.' ... 'We have education ahead of us, we have housing, a very important issue because we're so short on housing in Massachusetts,' she said. 'We have a lot of legislation to get through and we need the governor to work with us, we need the House to work with us, and we need to work together.'"

- "Behind Charlie Baker's Bezos bid: Gov pulled out all the stops to woo tech giant's CEO," by Jordan Graham, Boston Herald: "State officials compiled personal dossiers on top Amazon executives - even zeroing in on CEO Jeff Bezos' wife - while Gov. Charlie Baker made high-level calls before submitting the Massachusetts bid for the online retail giant's $5 billion second headquarters."

- "Pick up the pace, Beacon Hill," by the Boston Globe editorial board: "This is not a full legislative agenda, of course. Rather, it should be a minimum to-do list for lawmakers to claim that they've earned their pay by attending diligently to the public business. So on your mark, legislators. You've got only seven months."

- "Sports gambling case has Massachusetts casinos at the ready," by Mark Arsenault, Boston Globe: "The odds are fairly good that the Massachusetts gambling market could significantly change even before all of the state's casinos are open. As resort casinos are being built in Springfield and Everett, gambling companies and regulators are preparing for the possibility that the US Supreme Court this spring will strike down a 1992 federal ban on sports betting, permitting all states to legalize - and tax - sports books."

- "Ethics probe casts long shadow on Beacon Hill as legislators start new year," by Bob Salsberg, Associated Press: "The new year brings a resumption of formal sessions on Beacon Hill after about as tumultuous a 'recess' that the Legislature has ever seen. Sen. Stan Rosenberg stepped aside as president of the Senate after The Boston Globe reported that several men - some with business before the Legislature - had accused Rosenberg's husband, Bryon Hefner of sexual misconduct."

- "Economy lifts Baker, Walsh," by Dan Atkinson, Boston Herald: "While every day of 2017 brought new controversy and turmoil, the year saw Gov. Charlie Baker and Mayor Martin J. Walsh continue to consolidate power heading into 2018 - in part because of a booming economy."

- "Galvin urges caution on rush to set up LLCs," by Andy Metzger, State House News Service: "Hoping to cash in on the new federal tax law, some Bay State workers have shown a growing interest in forming limited liability companies in time for the tax year that starts Monday, but a top state official is urging them to look before they LLC."

TRUMPACHUSETTS -

- "Massachusetts AG Healey Teams Up With East Coast States, Sues EPA Over Midwestern Air Fumes," by Evan Lips, New Boston Post: "Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey is once again teaming up with her New York counterpart, this time as part of an effort to put the smack-down on President Donald Trump over his administration's apparent lax pollution-policing of industries - largely of the coal-fired variety - based in the Midwest."

THE WARREN REPORT -

- "Warren positions for potential 2020 run," by POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti: "Elizabeth Warren has spent the past year making a series of below-the-radar moves that would put her in prime position to run for president in 2020 if she decides to. ... The liberal icon and Republican bete noire has amassed more money in her campaign war chest than nearly any senator in modern history, groomed political connections with Democrats who've been skeptical of her in the past, and worked to bolster her bipartisan and foreign policy bona fides."

ON THE STUMP -

- "County official switches gears, will challenge Sandwich rep," by Andy Metzger, State House News Service: "Ending his prospective primary challenge against Gov. Charlie Baker, a Republican elected to the Barnstable County Commission plans to mount a campaign against Rep. Randy Hunt, a Sandwich Republican. ... 'He's never faced a primary challenger,' Ron Beaty told the News Service. He said, 'As much as he would like to be nonchalant about it, I believe he is concerned.'"

- "Fitchburg's Marino might challenge Neal in 2018," by Katie Lannan, State House News Service: "A Fitchburg Republican who'd been considering a run for the open Third Congressional District seat next year is now looking further west. ... Lou Marino told the News Service Tuesday he's exploring a run against incumbent Democrat Rep. Richard Neal of Springfield, who has served in Congress since 1989. Marino said he grew up in West Springfield and felt his candidacy would be a better fit in the western part of the state."

- "Brookline Dem running to 'build on' Smizik legacy," by Matt Murphy, State House News Service: "Brookline Town Meeting member and constable Tommy Vitolo will run for the state House seat that 17-year veteran Rep. Frank Smizik plans to give up when his term expires after 2018, the Democrat announced Tuesday."

TSONGAS ARENA -

- "Crowded 3rd District congressional race likely to be volatile," by Chris Lisinski, Lowell Sun: "You could be forgiven for losing count of the candidates running to succeed U.S. Rep. Niki Tsongas in the 3rd Congressional District. Since Tsongas announced in mid-August that she would not seek another term in 2018, it has seemed as if a new Democrat has declared candidacy every other week -- and with a field that now stands at 13, a new face has, on average, entered the arena every 11 days. Experts say it is unlikely that all 13 candidates will make it to September's primary, but even so, a field of this size is highly unusual."

WOOD WAR - Herald: "COLD WAR," "NOT BIDEN HIS TIME." - Globe: "A bitter, bleak reality for city's homeless," "Walsh starts the year with vow," "At hospitals, Alzheimer's care lacking," "Wiretap law update resisted," "Tax cuts bump up paychecks but can't help like raises would."

THE LOCAL ANGLE -

HISTORY HAPPENS IN FRAMINGHAM - "Yvonne Spicer sworn in as Framingham's first mayor," by Eric Moskowitz, Boston Globe: "With her left hand on a colonial Bible held by US Senator Elizabeth Warren and her right hand raised, Spicer at once became the first mayor of what had been the state's - and the country's - largest town and the first popularly elected African-American woman mayor in Massachusetts."

- "Walsh says he will focus on issues affecting middle class in his second term," by Milton J. Valencia, Boston Globe: "As he embarked on his second term, Mayor Martin J. Walsh on Monday vowed to rebuild the bridge to Long Island, proclaiming that the former base of homeless shelters and rehabilitation programs on the island will once again play a 'vital role in Boston's recovery landscape.'"

- "He's back from prison - and running the Brockton Republican City Committee," by Frank Phillips, Boston Globe: "He's back, and he is not letting a stretch in a federal penitentiary get in the way of his political activities. Larry Novak, whom federal prosecutors charged with trying to launder drug money for one of his law practice clients, is now listed on the state GOP's website as the chairman of the Brockton Republican City Committee."

- "While in prison, Brockton's Novak kept in contact with Massachusetts Republicans," by Marc Larocque, Brockton Enterprise: "Lawrence Novak, the longtime Republican campaign organizer in Brockton, who was convicted of money laundering charges, said he wasn't abandoned and was treated well during his six years in prison. While he was imprisoned for six years at a low-security facility at the federal prison camp in Fort Dix, Jew Jersey, Novak said he stayed busy helping other inmates and continued to receive communications from many Republicans he knew from back home."

- "Massachusetts children with mental health problems struggle to get care," by Shira Schoenberg, Springfield Republican: "The practice of 'boarding' -- keeping mental health patients in a hospital emergency department for more than 12 hours because of a lack of a treatment placement -- is a known problem in Massachusetts. Teenagers are the most at risk, and younger children also face difficulties. ... One state health expert said boarding is a symptom of other problems throughout the mental health system."

- "Greenfield looks to progressive future as a city," by Aviva Luttrell, Greenfield Recorder: "As Greenfield moves into the new year, residents can expect to see a number of changes and improvements - including a new community center, parking garage and, after 10 years, a decision about whether to allow a big box store on the French King Highway. Meanwhile, Greenfield is entering its first year as an official city, shortly after becoming the only one in the county."

- "Faneuil Hall Closing For Renovations," by the Associated Press: "Boston's historic Faneuil Hall is closing in January for some much-needed repairs. Officials say the 275-year-old building will close starting Monday for renovations that include upgraded elevator services and improved heating and cooling."

GET READY FOR A COLD AND SLOW AND COLD COMMUTE - "MBTA says rail and bus lines are likely to be delayed this week," by Dylan McGuinness, Boston Globe: "The MBTA is advising commuters to add 20 minutes of travel time in the morning, in anticipation of frigid temperatures affecting bus and rail services this week, officials said."

A LOOSE SEAL - "Seal pup found waddling down a Massachusetts highway is rescued by police and released back into the ocean," by the Associated Press: "A baby seal that was found waddling down a Massachusetts highway has now safely been returned to the ocean. ... Police say the seal was spotted on Route 6A in Yarmouth Port on Cape Cod late on Friday."

MAZEL! - to John D. Murphy, who leaves the State House for the Norfolk County District Attorney's office where he will be an Assistant District Attorney.

ALSO MAZEL! - to Jonathan Donenberg, chief counsel and legislative director to Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who wed Erica Andersen at the International Trade Center in Washington on Dec. 31.

HAPPY HOLIDAY WEEK BELATED - to Springfield Sen. Jim Welch (Dec. 22), Dartmouth Rep. Christopher Markey (Dec. 25), Holliston Rep. Carolyn Dykema (Dec. 26), Spencer Sen. Anne Gobi (Dec. 27), comms pro John Guilfoil (Dec. 29)

HAPPY BELATED - to former chief of staff to Marty Walsh Dan Koh, Wynn design and development project coordinator Anusha Mookherjee and Worcester Rep. Mary Keefe, who all celebrated on Monday.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY - to Gloucester Sen. and Minority Leader Bruce Tarr.

DID THE HOME TEAMS WIN? - Yes! The Patriots beat the Jets 26-6 on Sunday. The Celtics topped the Nets 108-105 on Sunday.

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