The 5-Minute Fix: Is there a blue wave in Texas? Not so fast.

March 08, 2018

Democracy Dies in Darkness

Keeping up with politics is easy now

By Amber Phillips

I'm not saying Texas will be one of the states to watch in November's battle for control of Congress. But right now, it's the only state Democrats can watch as the party looks for swells that could turn into a wave to carry it to control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

So, did any evidence of an impending Democratic wave materialize? It depends how you want to interpret Tuesday's primary in Texas, the first of the 2018 congressional midterm elections.

Good news for Democrats in Texas: 1 million voted in the primary.

That's the highest Democratic turnout for a midterm primary in 16 years. Democratic turnout was 100 percent higher than 2014 levels, and Republican turnout ticked up just a bit, points out Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser.

But: Some Democrats were predicting they would equal GOP turnout, and they fell short of that. Republicans got 1.5 million votes.

Good news for Democrats: Progressive Democrats got the candidates they wanted.

Former judge Veronica Escobar could be the first Latina to serve in Congress from Texas. (David Weigel/The Washington Post)

There aren't many congressional seats that Democrats have a chance to flip in Texas. But there are at least two: GOP Reps. John Abney Culberson in the Houston suburbs and Will Hurd in a perennially competitive border district.

On Tuesday, almost all the candidates that liberal Democratic groups supported won their primaries outright or made it to a May runoff.

But: Progressive wins mean establishment candidates lost, or at least didn't win outright, in some of these races. The national Democratic Party took an unusually aggressive step to try to handicap progressive activist and author Laura Moser in the race to unseat Culberson, fearful her comments about how she'd rather pull out teeth than move to rural Texas could hurt her in a general election. The move arguably backfired by elevating her profile. On Tuesday, Moser made it to the runoff.

Good news for Democrats: Texas Democrats are presenting their most serious challenge to a Republican senator in years.

Rep. Beto O'Rourke. (Carolyn Kaster/AP)

It's official: Rep. Beto O'Rourke is the Democratic nominee to challenge Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in November. O'Rourke is a candidate most Democratic operatives can get behind. He's telegenic, eloquent and organized, raising lots of money.

But: O'Rourke still needs to prove he can run a competitive statewide campaign. And his first test Tuesday didn't go that great. O'Rourke won his primary with 62 percent of the vote, but he ceded 38 percentage points to two much lesser-known, less-hyped challengers. If he's going to unseat a Republican senator in Texas, O'Rourke will need to get hundreds of thousands more votes.

That's actually a good metaphor for how Democrats' 2018 is shaping up. Momentum is definitely on their side, but no wave election is guaranteed.

How to play identity politics, a three-step lesson by Ted Cruz

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), left, and Rep. Beto O'Rourke. (Susan Walsh/AP; Ivan Pierre Aguirre for The Washington Post)

Step one: Find out if your opponent is doing something that could remotely be construed as appealing to a demographic group.

Like the fact O'Rourke goes by “Beto,” a nickname he's had since a child, even though his legal name is Robert. Cruz seized on the name with a radio ad featuring the jingle: “Liberal Robert wanted to fit in, so he changed his name to Beto and hid it with a grin.”

Step two: Let voters read between the lines.

This one isn't really hard. O'Rourke does not have Latino heritage, and Cruz appears to be suggesting he's trying to sound like he does with the Spanish nickname. (Cruz is accusing O'Rourke of trying to “fit in” in a state that is 40 percent Hispanic.) The strategy here, explains The Fix's Eugene Scott, appears to be to undermine O'Rourke's Democratic base, which includes a large number of Latino voters.

Step three: Ignore charges of hypocrisy.

Cruz goes by his own nickname, Ted, one that is much more, well, white-sounding than his given name, Rafael.

Okay, we need to talk about Stormy Daniels...

... so that you can talk about her at the water cooler.

Stormy Daniels in 2009. (Arely D. Castillo/The News-Star via AP)

The what: She's a porn star who is alleging three potentially politically damaging things about the president: 1) They had an affair about a decade ago while Trump was married to Melania 2) Trump's personal lawyer facilitated paying her $130,000 12 days before the presidential election to keep quiet about it and 3) Trump knew about the payment.

The White House has denied the affair but has been suspiciously coy about whether Trump was involved in the $130,000 payment his personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, made to Daniels.

The latest: On Tuesday, Daniels dropped a lawsuit against president. She's asking a court to void a nondisclosure agreement she signed during the election, so she can fully tell her side of the story.

Actually, the lawsuit already accomplishes much of that, notes The Fix's Aaron Blake. It starts by sharing how they “began an intimate relationship in the Summer of 2006 in Lake Tahoe and continued [the] relationship with Mr. Trump well into the year 2007.”

The lawsuit, which refers to Daniels by her given name, Stephanie Clifford.

It accuses Cohen of “aggressively” seeking to silence her when she wanted to speak up in October after the publication of the “Access Hollywood” tape, “thus helping to ensure he won the Presidential Election.”

And it ends by saying she has “Confidential Information” about Trump, “which includes, but is not limited to information, certain still images and/or text messages” related to the president.

What to watch for now:

Is there any evidence Trump knew or authorized the payment to Daniels? If Cohen's payment was authorized by the campaign, it could be considered political in nature, and thus a contribution to help out the campaign that was never reported as such.
Is Trump denying an affair that actually happened?
Does Daniels have proof, with her “Confidential Information” tease? And will a court allow her to share it?

Did you know: The First Lady, partner to the bald eagle at the National Arboretum known as Mr. President, is late laying an egg?